The Trump Administration recently announced they have collected hundreds of billions of dollars in “tariff fees”. The specific number is close to $300 billion and climbing. Wow. Look at all that revenue. For America. We’ll pay down the $38 trillion National Debt in approximately 120 years. Yay. Imagine a lazy, waving, small American Flag. But wait, maybe the Trump Administration will send $2000 checks to every American. Yay? Why would he do that? And why hasn’t he?

Tariffs—and their effects—are hard to understand. Most people tell me tariffs are a “tax” on foreign countries and assume foreign countries are paying that tax. It is closer to the truth, however, to say no “countries” ever pay any Tariff Tax. For example, the United States of America, doesn’t pay other countries for their “unfair” tariffs, even as other countries are “ripping us off”, per Mr. Trump.

Wait. China is not paying massive tariffs for all the goods they import? No. They are not. How about Mexico and Canada? No. They are not. And America is not paying tariffs to other countries?* No. So what is going on? Who IS paying?

Again, it’s complicated but here is a simple example: A pair of Chinese sneakers retails at Walmart in the US for $10 in 2024 with the cost being $5 per pair under the 2024 Tariff Plan. China is then “punished” with a new Tariff Plan of 50% the fall of 2025. That Chinese sneaker pair will be charged an additional 50% tariff when it lands on American soil, making the cost of the sneakers in 2025 $7.50. Think a retailer like Walmart will sell the sneaker in 2025 at the same price as the 2024 sneaker? The tariff is really a “tax” meant to make the Chinese sneaker as expensive as an American made sneaker. Does it work? It will if some American Sneaker Manufacturer can sell his sneakers for under $15. The purpose is to support American Manufacturing and give them an economic reason to make sneakers by raising the Chinese Imports price. If you watch any sports events you probably think there are no sneaker-makers in the US, but there are. Why aren’t they being used by professional and amateur sports teams, now? See, complicated.

But the best or worst part of the whole process is who is actually paying, shelling out the dough, for the tariff “tax”? In our example, it ain’t China and it ain’t the US. In this example, it is Walmart. And probably you when you buy the sneaker at the new 2025 price. What will that price be?

Let’s circle back to the billions in tariff revenue touted by Trump. Where did the actual money come from? China? No, it is American money from American retailers, wholesalers, and importers. It’s a neat way to “tax” without calling it a tax. (Can you say One Big Beautiful Bill Tax Cuts?) And….drum roll…Walmart’s initial payments go to the Treasury and Trump can (almost) do whatever he wants with the dollars, without congressional approval. More ICE Agents? A Ballroom? Tax rebates to Americans? What great ideas.

But nothing has happened, yet, not even hyper-inflation. Why?  Read below from The Peterson Institute for International Economics, by Gary Clyde Hufbauer (PIIE) and Ye Zhang(China)September 16, 2025:  “If the Supreme Court affirms the lower courts’ decisions, the federal government could have to refund much of the tariff revenue collected this year. But if the Supreme Court reverses the lower courts and affirms IEEPA tariffs, US firms may start passing the added costs to households. While the tariffs have so far had a modest effect on inflation, eventually consumers could see higher prices.”

The Supreme Court will decide in November 2025 if the Tariffs are even legal. We might have to refund all money to the payers. So Walmart is waiting to see if it gets its money back. Even badder(sic),  imagine if Trump sent out “rebate” checks to Americans he then had to ask them to return. Walmart pricing may rise drastically after the November Supreme Court ruling. Or we all get $2000 checks for Christmas. In the meantime, uncertainty and chaos, the operational mode of our current government.

I am not an economist or politician and researched this post at my own expense (Yes, humor.) If anyone knows the Tariff situation is any different than described in this post, please comment and correct. All I really know for sure is most people think foreign governments are making tariff payments to us, America. Wonder why they think that?

*Subsidies, and other financial “arrangements” (Kickbacks?) can complicate the situation even further, and make it impossible to follow the money.